How RAW Operates! Research and Analysis

How RAW Operates, RAW operates under the Cabinet Secretariat and reports directly to the Prime Minister of India.

Introduction

The (RAW) is India’s premier foreign intelligence agency, established in 1968 following the intelligence failures of the 1962 Sino-Indian War and the 1965 Indo-Pak War. RAW operates under the Cabinet Secretariat and reports directly to the Prime Minister of India.

How RAW Operates

RAW’s primary functions include:

• Covert Operations – Gathering intelligence, conducting espionage, and influencing foreign governments.
• Counterterrorism – Monitoring and countering threats from Pakistan-based militant groups.
• Strategic Intelligence – Tracking military and nuclear developments in China, Pakistan, and other neighboring countries.
• Cyber & Electronic Surveillance – Hacking, signal intelligence (SIGINT), and cyber warfare.
• Support to Allies – Assisting friendly nations (e.g., Afghanistan before the Taliban takeover) with intelligence sharing.

RAW operates through:

• Human Intelligence (HUMINT) – Agents embedded in foreign countries, often under diplomatic cover.
• Technical Intelligence (TECHINT) – Satellites, cyber espionage, and electronic eavesdropping.
• Front Organizations – Businesses, NGOs, and media outlets used as covers.

RAW’s Network in Asia

RAW is particularly active in:

1. Pakistan – Monitoring militant groups (LeT, JeM), Baloch insurgents, and political developments.
2. Afghanistan – Previously supported anti-Taliban forces; maintains ties with former Northern Alliance members.
3. Nepal & Bhutan – Countering Chinese influence and monitoring Tibetan activities.
4. Sri Lanka & Bangladesh – Tracking extremist groups and political shifts.
5. Myanmar – Counter-insurgency operations and monitoring Chinese naval activities.
6. Iran – Limited cooperation on counterterrorism (despite Iran’s ties with Pakistan).

Do Afghans & Iran Secretly Support RAW?

• Afghanistan (Pre-Taliban): The Afghan government (especially under Ashraf Ghani) cooperated with RAW against Pakistan-backed militants.
• Iran: While officially neutral, some reports suggest limited intelligence sharing on Baloch separatists and Sunni extremist groups. However, Iran’s close ties with Pakistan limit overt support.

RAW’s Network in Pakistan

RAW’s presence in Pakistan is significant but highly covert:

• Agents: Often operate under diplomatic cover (e.g., Indian High Commission in Islamabad).
• Local Informants: Recruits include dissidents in Balochistan, Sindh, and anti-Pakistan elements.
• Cyber & SIGINT: Monitors Pakistani military communications.
• Estimated Strength: Exact numbers are classified, but Pakistan has repeatedly arrested alleged RAW agents (e.g., Kulbhushan Jadhav case).

RAW’s Operations in Pakistan – A Detailed Analysis 

The Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) has been deeply involved in intelligence and covert operations inside Pakistan, primarily to:

Disrupt Pakistan’s influence in Afghanistan & Kashmir.

Counter terrorism (monitoring groups like Lashkar-e-Taiba & Jaish-e-Mohammed).

Gather strategic intelligence (nuclear program, military movements).

Support dissident movements (Baloch & Sindhi separatists).

1. RAW’s Spy Network in Pakistan

A. Human Intelligence (HUMINT) – Undercover Agents

• Diplomatic Cover: RAW operatives work inside the Indian High Commission in Islamabad and consulates in Karachi & Lahore.
  • Example: Kulbhushan Jadhav (arrested in 2016) was allegedly a RAW operative posing as a businessman in Balochistan.
• Local Recruits: RAW recruits Pakistani nationals, including:
  • Disgruntled military officers (rare but high-value).
  • Baloch & Sindhi separatists (intel on military operations).
  • Criminal networks (for smuggling weapons & funds).

B. Cyber & Electronic Espionage

• Hacking Pakistani Defense Systems:
  • Operation Chanakya – Penetrated Pakistani military communications.
  • Cyber Attacks on ISI & Army Networks (e.g., 2020 Power Blackout in Karachi was blamed on Indian hackers).
• Satellite Surveillance: Monitoring military bases (e.g., Kahuta Nuclear Facility).

C. Support for Insurgent Groups

• Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA):
  • Alleged funding, training, and arms supply via Afghanistan.
  • Pakistan’s Claim: RAW helped BLA carry out attacks (e.g., 2018 attack on Chinese consulate in Karachi).
• Sindhudesh Movement: Limited support to Sindhi separatists.

2. Major RAW Operations in Pakistan

A. Kulbhushan Jadhav Case (2016)

• Who? Former Indian Navy officer arrested in Balochistan.
• Pakistan’s Claim: He was a RAW spy funding Baloch insurgents.
• India’s Response: Called it a “false confession under duress.”
• Outcome: Jadhav sentenced to death (later stayed by ICJ).

B. Sabotage & Assassinations (Alleged)

• Targeted Killings of Militant Leaders:
  • Sajid Mir (LeT operative) – Killed in Lahore (2023, alleged RAW hit).
  • Syed Khalid Raza (JeM leader) – Shot dead in Karachi (2021).
• Pakistan’s Accusations: RAW runs a “sleeper cell network” for assassinations.

C. Infiltration in Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir (PoK)

• Intel Gathering: RAW recruits locals in Muzaffarabad, Gilgit.
• Sabotage Attacks: Alleged role in bombings near military installations.

3. Pakistan’s Counter-Intelligence Against RAW

A. Arrests & Expulsions

• 2016: Expelled Indian diplomats after Jadhav’s arrest.
• 2020: Arrested alleged RAW agent Babar Bhutta in Lahore.
• 2024: Claimed to bust a RAW spy ring in Sialkot.

B. Propaganda & Media War

• ISI’s Counter-Narrative: Regularly accuses RAW of terrorism.
• Fake Spy Claims: Sometimes exaggerates RAW’s influence for political reasons.

C. Cyber Counter-Espionage

• Pakistan’s FIA Cyber Wing tracks & hacks Indian operatives.
• Hackbacks: Pakistani hackers (e.g., Transparent Tribe) target Indian defense sites.

4. RAW’s Current Strength in Pakistan (Estimated)

1. RAW in Karachi – Espionage & Sabotage Hub

Karachi, Pakistan’s financial and port city, is a prime target for RAW due to its:

• Strategic importance (Gwadar port rivalry).
• Presence of militant groups (LeT, JeM, TTP).
• Large Indian diaspora (possible informants).

Key Operations in Karachi

A. Infiltration Through Business & Diplomacy

• Indian Consulate in Karachi: Allegedly a hub for RAW operations.
  • 2016: Pakistan expelled an Indian diplomat for “spying.”
  • 2022: Claims of RAW recruiting Sindhi nationalists from Karachi University.
• Fake Businesses: RAW agents allegedly operate under trade covers (e.g., fishing, textiles).

B. Cyber & Sabotage Activities

• 2018 Chinese Consulate Attack (Alleged RAW Link)
  • BLA militants stormed the consulate; Pakistan accused RAW of funding them.
• 2020 Karachi Power Grid Attack
  • Pakistan blamed Indian hackers for the blackout (denied by India).

C. Targeted Killings (Alleged)

• 2023: Pakistani media accused RAW of assassinating:
  • Syed Khalid Raza (JeM commander) – Shot dead in Gulshan-e-Iqbal.
  • Sajid Mir (LeT operative) – Killed in a “mysterious shooting.”

2. RAW in Balochistan – Fueling Insurgency

Balochistan is RAW’s biggest focus due to:

• CPEC (China-Pakistan Economic Corridor) – India sees it as a security threat.
• Baloch separatists willing to collaborate against Pakistan.

Key Operations in Balochistan

A. Support for Baloch Liberation Army (BLA)

• Training & Arms Supply (via Afghanistan-Iran routes).
• Funding through Dubai-based networks.
• 2016 Kulbhushan Jadhav Case
  • Pakistan arrested him in Mashkel, claiming he was a RAW agent arming the BLA.

B. Attacks on Chinese Interests

• 2022 Karachi University Bombing (BLA killed Chinese teachers).
• 2023 Gwadar Port Attack – Baloch militants targeted Chinese engineers.
• Pakistan’s Claim: RAW funds these attacks to disrupt CPEC.

C. Intelligence Gathering on Military Bases

• Spies in Quetta: Posing as journalists, NGO workers.

Satellite Surveillance on Gwadar, Ormara naval bases.

3. RAW in Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir (PoK) – Intel & Subversion

RAW closely monitors PoK due to:

• Pakistan’s militant training camps (LeT, Hizbul Mujahideen).
• Strategic importance (LoC tensions, Gilgit-Baltistan CPEC route).

Key Operations in PoK

A. Recruiting Local Informants

• Infiltrating Mujahideen Groups: Some ex-militants allegedly work for RAW.
• Honey Traps & Bribery: Pakistani soldiers bribed for intel on troop movements.

B. Sabotage & Bombings (Alleged)

• 2019: Bomb blast near Rawalakot military camp – Pakistan blamed RAW.
• 2021: Suspected RAW hand in attacks on LeT hideouts in Muzaffarabad.

C. Cyber Warfare in PoK

• Hacking Pakistani military communications near LoC.
• Fake social media propaganda to incite unrest.

4. Pakistan’s Countermeasures in These Regions

Conclusion: RAW’s Shadow War in Pakistan

• Karachi: Hub for espionage, sabotage, and targeted killings.
• Balochistan: Fueling insurgency to counter CPEC.
• PoK: Intelligence gathering & destabilization efforts.
• Pakistan’s Response: Arrests, military ops, and cyber counterattacks.

Future Outlook:

• More cyber warfare (hacking, disinformation).
• Increased targeted killings of militants & spies.
• Balochistan insurgency likely to escalate.

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